SOLICITATION NOTICE
B -- Decadal Climate Variability Study
- Notice Date
- 6/5/2015
- Notice Type
- Cancellation
- NAICS
- 541712
— Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences (except Biotechnology)
- Contracting Office
- Department of Homeland Security, United States Coast Guard (USCG), Contracting Office, USCG Research and Development Center, 1 Chelsea Street, New London, Connecticut, 06320-5506, United States
- ZIP Code
- 06320-5506
- Solicitation Number
- W912HQ-15-T-0019
- Point of Contact
- Richard J. Pecoraro, Phone: (703) 428-6485
- E-Mail Address
-
richard.j.pecoraro@usace.army.mil
(richard.j.pecoraro@usace.army.mil)
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- The US Army Corps of Engineers intends to award a Sole-Source, Firm-Fixed-Price Type Professional Services contract to Dr. Vikram Mehta at The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System (CRCES), to conduct a study and submit quantifiable data by combining decadal climate, hydrology, and crop data with USACE data and GIS based models to test the idea that decadal climate variability influences USACE budgeting and planning processes, geo-spatially and temporally. This requirement in not expected to exceed the Simplified Acquisition Threshold. The following are the major tasks associated with this study: 1. Foundational Questions Portion of the Study: Four initial questions about the combinations are of value for USACE operations and budget planners: 1. The first question is there a higher probability some combinations occur than other combinations. 2. Can the persistence of each combination be quantified? Finally can any information be provided regarding the probability of moving from one combination to another combination? 3. Are there certain transition sequences that have a low probability of occurring? 4. Conversely are the transition sequences that have a high probability of occurrence? It is understood that the answers to the above questions maybe limited at this point. The goal here is to document the state of current knowledge and identify, should there be a follow on phase of this project, what work needs to be done to refine this understanding of these relationships to best support USACE planning and budgeting. 2. Contiguous United States Analytical Portion of the Study: The only analysis covering the entire contiguous United States in this contract will be an analysis of the precipitation patterns by USACE Division by decadal combination relative to historic precipitation for each division. The intention is to do a limited analysis intended to identify how precipitation patterns differ by decadal combination by division relative to the historic precipitation pattern. Contractor will be responsible for providing precipitation data. 3. The Mississippi River Basin Portion of the Analysis: The next task in the contract will be to analyze how decadal variability influences USACE missions and budget processes for the divisions associated with the Mississippi River Basin (http://www.usace.army.mil/Locations.aspx). The impacts to be considered include: a. Crop production, b. Reservoir levels, c. Inland waterway dredging, The source of decadal oscillation data for the PDO, WPWP and TAG will be similar to the sources and methods for characterization described in the recent peer reviewed paper by Mehta, Rosenberg and Mendoza, 2012. The decadal climate information will be integrated into the Water Information System Data manager (WISDM) Geo-spatial Budget planning tool to describe relationships, if any, between decadal climate patterns and USACE budget and planning processes. Three tasks will be completed to achieve this: The contractor is responsible for producing the climate data described above and the modification of the reservoir, dredging, and crop production to ensure the climate data can be effectively linked to the WISDM integrated watershed budget planning tool. 4. Average crop yield/acre and production by districts of a division within the Mississippi river basin: The average crop yield and average crop production for corn wheat and soybean will be calculated as weighted average of the districts within a division that lie within the Mississippi River basin. The crop data time series to be considered will 1934-2014. The data will be geo-spatially referenced using the GIS reference grid. The averages will be calculated for each combination and for the historic average yield per acre and average total production. The combinations are the 8 combinations described in Table 1. The data for the crop yields will be obtained from the National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS). The crop yields will need to be adjusted for technological change to ensure yield variation reflects climate variability. 5. Impacts on USACE Reservoirs: The average water available under each of the eight possible combinations of decadal phase by driver listed in Table 1 will be compared to historic average availability for Reservoir levels in the USACE reservoirs in the Mississippi River Basin. In this case the analysis will be done by district. The water data will be obtained from USACE sources (Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) and the relevant districts). 6. Dredging: The average number of cubic yards of dredging activity by decadal combination by district. In addition, the river flow at St Louis gage should be analyzed by decadal combination. Low river flows are associated with increased dredging on the Middle Mississippi River. If there are any anomalies in the data Rolf Olsen and Harvey Hill will facilitate clarification between the data experts and the contractor. The technology trend for this data is discrete rather than the continuous trend observed with crop yields. Some form of technology de-trending will have to be considered as the dredging technology and consequent dredged volumes differ over the historic record. A proxy for dredging if required could be river flow at other relevant gages. IWR will provide the dredging data. The source of the data for the dredging is the Navigation Data Center (http://www.navigationdatacenter.us/). 7.Deliverables: 1. A table ranking (highest probability to lowest)of combinations occurrence, 2. A quantification of the persistence of each combination. Persistence being the number of years a combination is sequentially maintained, 3. A quantification of: a. The probability of moving from one combination to another combination, b. The combination transition sequences that have a low probability of occurring, c. The combination transition sequences that have a high probability of occurrence, 4. A quantification of the relative changes in average precipitation by USACE division by combination relative to historic precipitation, 5. A quantification of the average crop yield/acre and production by districts of a division within the Mississippi river basin. Secondly the calculation of the weighted average of the relevant districts in a division by combination relative to the historic average for the same districts. The three crops to be considered are non-irrigated wheat, soybean, and corn. 6. Quantify and document the difference between normal reservoir operating levels and actual for the month of August by combination and average annual water release by combination versus the historic average. 7. The de-trended average volume of material dredged by combination versus de-trended dredging over the historic record. The data associated with each phase combination described above will be provided in a format that can be entered into the WISDM tool for the comparison of the activities described in the preceding section. Show the river flow at St Louis gage associated with each phase combination. Timeline: 1. Contract begins, 2. Delineation of the years related to each combination and probabilities associated with transition, 30 days following Notice to Proceed (NTP). 3. Crop Production completed 60 days following NTP. 4. Impacts on USACE related reservoirs and river systems completed 90 days following NTP. 5. Dredging completed 120 days following NTP. 6. Final report 135 days following NTP. This is a special notice prepared in accordance with the format in Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) 6.302-1(a)(2)(iii)(A), Only one responsible source and no other supplies or services will satisfy agency requirements. However, any firm that believes it can meet this requirement may give written notification to the Contracting Officer within 15 days from the date of publication of this announcement. Supporting evidence must be in sufficient detail to demonstrate the ability to comply with the requirement. Responses received will be evaluated; however, a determination by the Government to compete the proposed procurement based on the responses to this notice is solely within the discretion of the Government. If no responses are received, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will proceed with awarding a Firm-Fixed-Price type contract to Dr. Vikram Mehta at The Center for Research on the Changing Earth System (CRCES). These services will be provided to the Institute for Water Resources, Alexandria, VA. Point of Contact for this requirement is Mr. Richard J. Pecoraro at richard.j.pecoraro@usace.army.mil, Telephone: (703) 428-6318.Address: US Army Corps of Engineers, Humphreys Engineer Center Support Activity, 7701 Telegraph Road, Alexandria, VA 22315.
- Web Link
-
FBO.gov Permalink
(https://www.fbo.gov/spg/DHS/USCG/USCGRDC/W912HQ-15-T-0019/listing.html)
- Place of Performance
- Address: 5523 Research park Dr, Ste 315, Catonsville, Maryland, 21228, United States
- Zip Code: 21228
- Zip Code: 21228
- Record
- SN03755007-W 20150607/150605234705-6596e73a18b35db1132b08eecc7cb220 (fbodaily.com)
- Source
-
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