SOLICITATION NOTICE
R -- Sources Sought for Climate Economic Model Development and Analysis of Global Forestry and Agriculture
- Notice Date
- 8/3/2010
- Notice Type
- Presolicitation
- Contracting Office
- Environmental Protection Agency, Administrative Contract Service Center, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, Nw, Washington, DC 20460
- ZIP Code
- 20460
- Solicitation Number
- RFQ-DC-10-00205
- Response Due
- 8/17/2010
- Archive Date
- 9/17/2010
- Point of Contact
- Point of Contact, Margaret Kline, Purchasing Agent, Phone (202) 564-4238
- E-Mail Address
-
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(Kline.Margaret@epamail.epa.gov)
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- NAICS Code: 541620The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Acquisition Management (EPA/OAM) is conducting market research for informational purposes only. This is a SOURCES SOUGHT notice and is not a Request for Quotation (RFQ). The intent is to identify all potential sources, including small business sources, with the capacity and technical capability necessary to successfully perform the requirements identified in the draft Statement of Work. The Government does not intend to award a contract on the basis of this notice or provide reimbursement for any costs incurred as a result of this notice. The NAICs code is 541620 and the product service code is R499. The work contemplated continues and expands the work undertaken under a Purchase Order with Ohio State University Research Foundation, Columbus Ohio. The work is to advance CEB?s terrestrial emissions, mitigation, and impacts analyses capabilities by enhancing global economic modeling of both detailed forestry and agriculture land-use and market activity and general equilibrium modeling of the relative role of forestry and agriculture in the global economy. The Global Timber Model (GTM), an internationally regarded, state of the art global forest economic climate model is regarded as the premier economic model for global forest carbon sequestration analysis. The tasks below are organized around expected work and deliverables, and will largely focus on GHG emissions and carbon sequestration from agriculture and forestry in terms of GHG inventories and projections, mitigation options, practices, and their costs. For this analysis, the contractor shall utilize and extend the dynamic Global Forestry and Agricultural Model (D-GFAM). In the performance of the following tasks, the contractor may collaborate with or receive information from EPA. The period of performance is expected to be from Date of Award to September 30, 2013. Draft Statement of Work:Task 1. Global forestry and agriculture sectoral model development and analysis. The current contractor has been collaborating with EPA to expand the capabilities of the non proprietary Global Timber Model (GTM) and the non proprietary dynamic Global Forestry and Agricultural Model (D-GFAM), and to develop methods to conduct biomass crop production analysis, and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission analysis with the D-GFAM. This task will also include expansion of agriculture commodities (crops and livestock) and enhanced geographic representation of data. In collaboration with EPA, the specific activities include: (a) Continue developing the current GFAM, and the model database by incorporating new data sources on forestry and agriculture. Perform updates or improvements to baseline and land-use allocation scenarios as new data emerges. (b) Disaggregate crop and livestock sectors to three crop types and two livestock types and develop new model baseline with forestry. Conduct baseline analysis and conduct marginal cost curve analysis.(c) Develop methods to integrate responses to carbon incentives on the agricultural production side and estimate forestry and agricultural GHG mitigation costs globally.(d) Integrate a biofuel module into the GFAM model and conduct analysis of the implications for global land use (e.g., quantity of land in forests, crops, and biofuels), carbon sequestration costs, and costs of supplying biofuel feedstocks.(e) Integrate recently developed Monte Carlo routines into the basic model so that uncertainty considerations can be incorporated into typical model runs provided for policy analysis. (f) Provide results in a geographically explicit way.Deliverables: Analysis of global forestry and agricultural land-use allocation baseline and mitigation scenarios in 18 regions and three major sectors currently in the model (crops, livestock, forestry); Expansion of the model to include disaggregated crop and livestock sectors and new model baseline with forestry; Further incorporation and analysis of global forestry and agricultural GHG mitigation potential, including non-CO2 greenhouse gases and forest biomass energy, in the regions and sectors outlined above; Development of biomass energy agriculture and forestry feedstocks in the D-GFAM model; uncertainty parameters, and; geographic representation capabilities.Task 2. Climate policy analysisThe contractor shall continue collaboration with EPA to conduct quick turnaround of results and analysis of legislative and other climate, agriculture and forestry, and land use policy proposals, including an assessment of the mitigation potential from the global forest sector under various forest and climate policies. These analyses would be conducted with existing model structure and would require little additional research beyond running the scenarios. Specifically, the contractor shall:a) Use GFAM model to address emerging issues for US climate change policy analysis, including international offset provisions in forestry and agriculture, the impact of biofuels on offset costs, and other emerging issues, including important questions in international offset provisions.b) Continue to compile model results and analyze global and regional carbon stock and flux for forest-related climate policies, and construct marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for specific practices including afforestation, forest management, and avoided deforestation. The Contractor will collaborate with EPA in determining specific forest and climate policies to assess and possibly write-up the results in a journal quality paper.c) Analyze the influence of technological change on future land use and the costs of carbon offsets, including the influence of changes in crop and timber yields, changes in technologies used to produce crops (e.g. capital and labor) and other types of technological improvements. d) Analyze the influence of leakage associated with offset policies that limit participation among offset activities, or among regions where offsets can be produced.e) Analyze REDD+ actions, as needed and if data is available. Deliverables: As requested, quick turn-around modeling and results; Assist EPA in developing analyses to assess biases and develop best practices with respect to long-term modeling of forestry and agriculture. The Contractor shall document all of the analyses above. The documentation may take the form of a memo, report, or journal quality article.Task 3. Scoping and AnalysisThese analyses would range from scoping exercises aimed at considering whether the GFAM model can be adapted for specific analyses, to more in-depth approaches that include scoping, model scenario runs, and interpretation of the results. Specifically, the contractor shall:a) Develop estimates of transactions costs for conducting carbon sequestration projects in regions utilized in the model and incorporate these costs into scenario analysis to assess how transactions costs influence the likely provision of offsets to markets. EPA has recently been doing work on transactions costs and other organizations like Resources for the Future have conducted some in-depth regional analysis of potential transactions costs. This task will include review of different approaches for categorizing and quantifying transactions costs as well as development of methods to incorporate these approaches into the GFAM.b) Conduct analysis of other region specific factors that are likely to influence the costs of carbon sequestration, including interest rates, land policies, environmental policies, and other policies. This task will start with listing out the potential policies by region and then assessing whether and how these policies can be incorporated into GFAM. To the extent possible these alternatives will be incorporated and used to adjust carbon offset costs estimated by GFAM.c) Conduct analysis on the elasticity of transformation value and incorporate new data and results into GFAM.d) Conduct analysis of potential effects of climate change on forest and agricultural outputs and the resulting influence of these changes on carbon offset costs.e) Analyze the influence of alternative measuring, monitoring and verification regimes on carbon sequestration costs.f) Analyze alternatives for 'phasing in' REDD adoption across countries; compare different scenarios of countries as they build capacity to adopt REDD activities.g) Analyze how costs would be influenced by alternative crediting systems, from project, sub-national, and national-level crediting, versus state/province and national, versus national only. h) Scope increasing the regional detail in the model from the existing 16 regions to 24, with more detail specifically in tropical regions of South America, Africa, and SE Asia.i) Scope the possibility of converting the model to 5 year time steps and update forestry management routines for managed forests to allow management actions in mid-rotation.j) Scope the possibility of enhancing the demand structure of the model to incorporate additional regional detail on income and population growth, and trade effects.Deliverables: Results from scoping and exploratory research to possibly be incorporated into GFAM for future EPA policy analysis and broader analysis by contractor; Production of memos and possible publications with scoping results.Travel: The contractor and/or other GTM/D-GFAM developers may be required to make up to 2 trips for staff; possibly 1 trip to Washington D.C. to inform EPA of progress, and possibly 1 trip elsewhere in the U.S. to present study results.III. Deliverables ScheduleTask 1. Global forestry and agriculture sectoral model development and analysisDeliverables:Continue developing the current GFAM, and the model database by incorporating new data sources on forestry and agriculture. Due Date: OngoingPerform updates or improvements to baseline and land-use allocation scenarios as new data emerges. Due Date: OngoingDisaggregate crop and livestock components. Due Date: June 2012Develop methods to integrate responses to carbon incentives on the agricultural production side and estimate forestry and agricultural GHG mitigation costs globally.Due Date: September 2012Integrate recently developed Monte Carlo routines. Due Date: October 2012Integrate a biofuel module into the GFAM model. Due Date: Fall 2012Use biofuel module to conduct analysis of the implications for global land use (e.g., quantity of land in forests, crops, and biofuels), carbon sequestration costs, and costs of supplying biofuel feedstocks. Due Date: Spring 2012Assistance in analyses to assess biases and develop best practicesTBD with EPA CORResults provided in a geographically explicit way. Due Date: OngoingQuick turn-around modeling and results. Due Date: OngoingTask 2. Climate policy analysisDeliverables:Use GFAM model to address emerging issues for US climate change policy analysis, including international offset provisions in forestry and agriculture, and MAC development. Due Date: OngoingAnalyze REDD+ actions. Due Date: Ongoing Analyze the influence of technological change on future land use and the costs of carbon offsets. Due Date: July 2011Analyze the influence of leakage associated with offset policies. Due Date: July 2011Assistance in writing articles and papers. Due Date:TBD with EPA CORTask 3. Scoping and AnalysisDeliverables:Develop estimates of transactions costs. Due Date: April 2012Conduct analysis of other region specific factors that are likely to influence the costs of carbon sequestration. Due Date: April 2012Conduct analysis of potential effects of climate change on forest and agricultural outputs. Due Date: April 2012Analyze the influence of alternative MMV. Due Date: July 2012Analyze the influence of technological change on future land use and the costs of carbon offsets. Due Date: October 2012Conduct analysis on the elasticity of transformation value. Due Date: October 2012Analyze alternatives for 'phasing in' REDD. Due Date: October 2012Analyze how costs would be influenced by alternative crediting systems. Due Date: December 2012Scope increasing the regional detail. Due Date: Spring 2012Scope the possibility of converting the model to 5 year time steps and update forestry management routines. Due Date: Summer 2013Scope the possibility of incorporating income and population growth, and trade effects. Due Date: Summer 2013All inquiries and concerns must be addressed in writing to,Margaret Kline via email to kline.margaret@epa.gov and must include contact information such as full name, company name, phone number, address and email address if applicable. Interested parties should provide a concise capability statement, limiting the response to five (5) single sided pages by August 17, 2010 4:30 p.m. local time. Capability statements should respond to all of the tasks described above. This sources sought notice will allow EPA to obtain general information on interested parties. Feedback and/or evaluation information will not be provided to any firm regarding their individual capability statements.
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- SN02227637-W 20100805/100804000056-44540fd35242a70cc015998078ebe70f (fbodaily.com)
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