SOURCES SOUGHT
A -- Census Bureau Support for Further Development of a Mathematical Model Linking Behavior Change and Change in the HIV Epidemic
- Notice Date
- 5/12/2010
- Notice Type
- Sources Sought
- NAICS
- 541720
— Research and Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities
- Contracting Office
- Department of Commerce, U. S. Census Bureau, Suitland, Acquisition Division, Room 3J438, Washington, District of Columbia, 20233
- ZIP Code
- 20233
- Solicitation Number
- YA1323-10-RP-0005
- Point of Contact
- Donna Cornish, Phone: 3017634514
- E-Mail Address
-
donna.cornish@census.gov
(donna.cornish@census.gov)
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- This is a Sources Sought notice. This is NOT a solicitation for proposals, proposal abstracts, or quotations. The purpose of this notice is to identify potential sources that are interested in and capable of performing the work described herein. Your responses to the information requested will assist the Government in determining the appropriate acquisition method, including whether a set-aside is possible. Potential sources are expected to review this notice to familiarize themselves with the requirements. Scope: The U.S. Census Bureau is seeking potential sources capable of providing the necessary scientific and logistical expertise, personnel, materials, facilities, and equipment necessary to provide further development support of a mathematical model as described below. Background: When President George W. Bush announced the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) in 2003, he stated, "This comprehensive plan will prevent 7 million new 'AIDS' infections, treat at least 2 million people with life-extending drugs, and provide humane care for millions of people suffering from AIDS, and for children orphaned by AIDS." The estimation of infections averted, therefore, was one of the first quantifiable demands placed upon the strategic information component of the Office of the Global AIDS Coordinator (OGAC). However, as the number of HIV infections averted is intrinsically a non-event and cannot be measured directly, it must be estimated through an indirect means, such as mathematical modeling. In 2004, a group made up of representatives from various U.S. government agencies and nongovernmental groups reviewed a variety of models available to estimate new HIV infections averted. Based on recommendations from the group it was decided that the Census Bureau would be tasked with modeling the number of infections averted for the fifteen PEPFAR focus countries. The Census Bureau model calculates baseline projections of HIV incidence for countries using demographic and HIV prevalence data obtained prior to 2005, the time period before intervention programs were widely instituted. This baseline serves as a reference for future comparisons. Subsequently, these incidence trends are re-estimated for countries with additional epidemiological antenatal clinic surveillance data and/or new demographic data available for years post-2004. The re-estimated trends in incidence, compared to the baseline, represent the net impact of all changes implemented with international support from PEPFAR and the Global Fund. The difference in the number of new HIV infections implied by the prevalence levels will be taken as the number of infections averted. With the reauthorization of PEPFAR in 2008, the U.S. government set forth goals to treat at least 3 million people, prevent 12 million new HIV infections, and care for 12 million people, including 5 million orphans and vulnerable children through September 30, 2013 in 31 countries and the Caribbean region. As in the first phase of PEPFAR, PEPFAR Phase II continues to place emphasis on the prevention of new HIV infections and quantifying that effort. Since there has been such an influx of funding going towards prevention efforts to stem the tide of the disease, there is now a strong need to tie program effectiveness with the prevention of further HIV infection. Project Requirements: The improved mathematical model is required to: • Apply to a wide range of different HIV epidemics. This includes generalized, concentrated, and low-level epidemics. • Represent the heterosexual transmission of HIV in a sexual-activity stratified population aged 15-49 years. • Include the ability to represent different phases of HIV infection, produce realistic rates of disease progression and death, and include the use and scale-up of anti-retroviral drugs. • Incorporate observed trends in behavioral indicators over time. These model parameters that pertain to sexual or other at-risk behaviors can be estimated from available data. Much of this information comes from population-based surveys and cohort studies in African populations that are found in the scientific literature. Model parameters that have reliable information include condom use, mean rate of partner change, number of sexual acts, rate of HIV transmission per sex act, and survival with HIV. Parameters with a paucity of information include variance in sexual risk behavior, sexual mixing patterns, and high-risk group replacement. • Output uncertainty intervals using a Bayesian framework for all parameter values that allow for quantification of conclusions drawn, estimate timing of behavior change, and HIV infections averted. • Allow for future incorporation of new parameters as epidemics evolve. For example, biomedical interventions that reduces the rate of HIV transmission, such as male circumcision and herpes simplex virus 2 suppression need to be incorporated into the model at some point in the future. • Represent a proven and previously used model that addresses the same issue of linking behavior change to changes in HIV epidemics. • Be provided in a computer program that is compatible with the Microsoft Windows environment and meet all requirements of the Federal Desktop Core Configuration (FDCC) regulations. However, this does not imply a plan to produce a widely distributable software package. • Be exportable to Microsoft Excel and also be available as a comma separated value (CSV) file. Capability Statements: Potential sources capable of providing the necessary scientific and logistical expertise for an improved mathematical model should submit a brief capability statement. All capability statements should: 1. Not exceed and will be restricted up to eight (8) pages. 2. Be electronically submitted to the email address below. 3. Include small business classification(s): (small business, 8(a), HUBZone, Small Disadvantaged business, Small Disadvantaged Veteran Owned business, and Women Owned business) in your submission, if applicable. 4. List references and experience in conducting similar projects for the past 3-5 years. The Government intends to consider all comments and the responsive qualification packages when developing its final acquisition strategy and resulting RFP(s). The synopsis, amendments and other information related to this sources sought as well as any subsequent procurement notifications will be posted on FedBizOpps' website. All interested parties should check this site frequently for updates. All information related to this procurement will be available at this link through the date of any award. In the event an RFP is issued, North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code 541720 with a size standard of $7.0M is being considered. Please submit all Capability Statements by 5:30 P.M. EST on May 21, 2010 via email to: Donna Cornish, Contract Specialist at donna.cornish@census.gov. NO FAXES, MAIL OR PHONE CALLS WILL BE ACCEPTED
- Web Link
-
FBO.gov Permalink
(https://www.fbo.gov/spg/DOC/CB/13040001/YA1323-10-RP-0005/listing.html)
- Place of Performance
- Address: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 4600 Silver Hill Road, Suitland, Maryland, 20746, United States
- Zip Code: 20746
- Zip Code: 20746
- Record
- SN02146873-W 20100514/100512234442-c3acdbab3cd1f14ec151c3967711b128 (fbodaily.com)
- Source
-
FedBizOpps Link to This Notice
(may not be valid after Archive Date)
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