SOLICITATION NOTICE
A -- Pre-solicitation Notice for Phase III: Optimal Control Theory Uncertainty for Sustainable Environmental Management
- Notice Date
- 7/16/2009
- Notice Type
- Presolicitation
- NAICS
- 541720
— Research and Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities
- Contracting Office
- Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Acquisition Management, EPA/Ohio, 26 West Martin Luther King Drive, Cincinnati, Ohio, 45268
- ZIP Code
- 45268
- Solicitation Number
- RFQ-OH-09-00071-0
- Archive Date
- 8/14/2009
- Point of Contact
- Michael Kreacic, Phone: 513-487-2104
- E-Mail Address
-
kreacic.michael@epa.gov
(kreacic.michael@epa.gov)
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- Pre-solicitation Notice for Phase III: Optimal Control Theory Uncertainty for Sustainable Environmental Management In accordance with FAR Part 13 and FAR Part 12, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research and Development (ORD), National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL), Sustainable Technology Division (STD) located in Cincinnati, OH is seeking to purchase a report on Optimal Control Theory Uncertainty for Sustainable Environmental Management. Background: The EPA\ORD\NRMRL\STD, has an interest to further the research and development as well as, implementation of those areas supporting and addressing areas of sustainability, in order to maintain and/or improve environmental quality. Past research pertaining to sustainability lacks the/a method(s) from an environmental quality standpoint of applications for fundamental underlying theory. This lack has illustrated a major obstacle to understanding, and/or being able to determine directions for immediate or future implementation of sustainability. The work described herein involves the further development of mathematical model(s) that have been determined under Phase I and Phase II in this research area. In developing this/these models, and in order to determine their credibility, the model(s) are applied to various scenarios of application to understand the impact and usefulness for future predictions of behavior under different circumstances. The models include looking at population, vegetation, climate, waste, and economic impacts by developing theoretical approaches that may lead to future work by STD within this field of research. Phase I, (previous work) researched the development of a fundamental simulated food-web model useful for sustainability studies and the application of “Optimal Control Theory” concept. By developing the concept into a valuable tool in which data can be incorporated to determine scenarios useful for forecasting the direction of Sustainable Environmental Management. Phase II, (previous work) evolved from the Phase I research and it involved the construction of optimal control strategy algorithms for incorporation in a simulated food-web model; and a mathematical computer algorithm using optimal control theory to manage a simulated ecological-economic-social model. This application of the “Optimal Control Theory”, included scenarios for population growth and resource consumption increases, resource consumption restrictions and economic strategies for implementing the restrictions. Phase III is intended to address two known gaps in the previous work: to investigate uncertainty (at a greater depth) and to incorporate an energy aspect. Scope of Work: A sophisticated mathematical model incorporating a model ecosystem along with a simplified economy and a human population with a rudimentary industrial sector and the sketch of a legal system has been developed. This development occurred partly in-house at the EPA and partly through two previous Purchase Orders. The mathematical model also incorporates an optimal control system that aims to maintain the stability of the system under human population and human consumption pressures. Two important assumptions in the mathematical model are: (1) The supply of energy available to the system is ample and constant. (2) That information on the system is accurate, i.e., there is negligible uncertainty. To address these two gaps, the following tasks shall be completed under this purchase order with the aim of addressing these two important areas. The contractor shall start with the already developed mathematical models (provided) from Phases I and II. Description of Tasks: Task 1 The Contractor shall incorporate into the mathematical model, an abstract representation of an economic energy generation sector, which will supply energy to households and private firms, farming, ranching, and industry, under a price-setting macroeconomic representation of the market and human population. The contractor shall adapt an energy theory to develop a method to represent the flow of energy through the model ecosystem and conduct simulated scenarios under different degrees to energy scarcity and energy prices. The contractor shall incorporate the energy generation sector into the macroeconomic model or produce new components within the existing model(s). Task 2 The Contractor shall incorporate “uncertainty” into the mathematical model(s). These various degrees of uncertainty associated with the model(s) and its variables will then determine the next steps in order to conduct analysis. In turn, this information shall be used to establish the degree of confidence in the results obtained from the aforementioned energy scarcity and energy price scenarios. This procurement will be made using "Best Value" evaluation criteria and will be competed using Full and Open Competition. The solicitation is expected to be issued on or about July 31, 2009. This office does not intend to mail hard copies of the solicitation. All responsible sources may submit a proposal which shall be considered by the agency. Interested parties should submit a written request to receive the RFQ to Michael Kreacic at the above address or by fax to 513-487-2107 or by e-mail to kreacic.michael@epa.gov. Telephone requests will not be honored.
- Web Link
-
FBO.gov Permalink
(https://www.fbo.gov/spg/EPA/OAM/OH/RFQ-OH-09-00071-0/listing.html)
- Record
- SN01878124-W 20090718/090717000920-d2eb0d04548ea3b0377ca66be850825d (fbodaily.com)
- Source
-
FedBizOpps Link to This Notice
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