SOLICITATION NOTICE
R -- FUEL PRICE FORECASTING SERVICES
- Notice Date
- 10/20/2005
- Notice Type
- Solicitation Notice
- NAICS
- 541990
— All Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
- Contracting Office
- Tennessee Valley Authority, Tennessee Valley Authority, Procurement, 1101 Market Street, Chattanooga, TN, 37401
- ZIP Code
- 37401
- Solicitation Number
- RFP-20051019
- Response Due
- 11/14/2005
- Archive Date
- 11/29/2005
- Description
- MULTI-COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTING Background TVA requires an integrated set of forecasted natural gas, coal, oil and emission allowance prices as input to its electricity price forecasting process, generation planning and risk management activities. TVA requires short-term and long-term price forecasts for each commodity. TVA is especially interested in information on standard subscription services, including a detailed description of services and frequency of updates. For TVA?s purposes, a semi-annual update for the long-term (20-year) commodity price forecasts is required. In order to adequately evaluate commodity price risk to the company, TVA is also interested in obtaining short- term and long-term price uncertainty for each commodity. It should be noted that TVA is not only interested in the potential uncertainty range of prices in the future, but, more importantly, the potential paths the markets could take that underlie that uncertainty. This includes an integrated set of stochastic uncertainties that can be used as input to the formation of electricity prices for the region. TVA envisions this to be an interactive process for the development of the first forecast. Specific requirements are outlined below. BIDS SHOULD INCLUDE RESPONSES TO THE FOLLOWING: What standard subscription services do you offer and when are they released? In general, what are your outlooks for the natural gas, coal, oil and emission allowance markets in the short-term, mid-term and long-term and what do you see as the major driver to each over these time periods? Please provide a summary of the methodology you would use to forecast the potential price paths of each market. o Mean with 10%/90% probabilities or standard deviations to develop a distribution o Integrated set of stochastics for all of the forecasts How do you propose to maintain consistency with other electricity price drivers (e.g, correlation to coal, environmental regulations, load growth, etc.). How do you propose to summarize your study for TVA? What standard sensitivities (case studies) do you offer? How often are your long-term forecasts updated and when would they be delivered? o Would there be an extra charge if earlier dates were requested? Provide a list of other clients receiving your subscriptions and/or custom forecasts Provide a discussion of accuracy for your forecasts. BIDS FOR INDIVIDUAL TASKS AND/OR ALL TASKS SHOULD INCLUDE PRICE BREAKDOWNS FOR THE FOLLOWING: Task 1 Short-term and long-term standard products for all commodities. Task 2 20-year, semi-annually updated Reference Case or Expected Case with annual prices in real and nominal dollars. This would include prices and a written description including all assumptions for:  Coal o All coal types listed as well as others requested in the future in FOB Mine $/Ton o Transportation costs to all TVA locations by rail, barge and truck o Average price by census or electricity regions  Natural Gas o Henry Hub price in $/MBtu o Transportation Costs to all TVA locations  Fuel Oil o Distillate price in $/MBtu for .5% and .05% sulfur o Transportation costs to all TVA locations  Emission Allowances o SO2 - $/Ton and $/Allowance o NOx - $/Ton Annual and Seasonal o Hg - $/lb  Reagents (if available) o Any reagents available from the list provided o Transportation costs to all TVA locations  Electricity (if available) o Associated Electricity price in $/MWh for TVA and the surrounding areas Task 3 Independent High and Low forecasts for Coal (by type), Gas, Oil and EA?s with associated probabilities (10%/90%) or standard deviations including all assumptions. High and Low forecasts for Electricity if available. Task 4 Integrated Stochastics (with correlations if available) for Coal, Gas, Oil and EA?s. Task 5 Integrated Case Studies (Scenario Analysis)  Price for any standard studies already produced  Price for customized studies  Results would include all commodity prices and assumptions Task 6 Providing a presentation of these forecasts for TVA management. TVA Plant Locations Allen Fossil Plant 1499 Steam Plant Rd. Gallatin, TN 37066-8714 Located on McKellar Lake, 21.7 miles from lake entrance at lower Mississippi River mile marker 725.6, 2574 Bull Run Fossil Plant 1265 Edgemoor Rd. Clinton, TN 37716-6270 Approx. Clinch River mile marker 47.0 Colbert Fossil Plant 900 Steam Plant Rd. Tuscumbia, AL 35674-6906 Approx. TN River mile marker 245.3 Cumberland Fossil Plant 815 Cumberland City Rd PO Box 2000 Cumberland City, TN 37050-2000 Approx. Cumberland River mile marker 100.4. Gallatin Fossil Plant 1499 Steam Plant Rd. Gallatin TN 37066-8714 Approx. Cumberland mile marker 240.6 John Sevier Fossil Plant 611 Old Hwy 70s Rogersville, TN 37857-5401 No barge service available Johnsonville Fossil Plant 535 Steamplant Rd, Hwy 70 New Johnsonville, TN 37134-0259 Approx. TN River mile marker 99.6 Kingston Fossil Plant 714 Swan Pond Rd Harriman, TN 37748-8327 On Clinch River 2.7 miles from confluence with TN River at mile 567.8 Paradise Fossil Plant 13246 State Route 176 Ste 10 Drakesboro, KY 42337-2345 Approx. Green River mile marker 100.4 Shawnee Fossil Plant 7900 Metropolis Lak E Rd West Paducah, KY 42086-9414 Approx. Ohio River mile marker 946.0 Widows Creek Fossil Plant 2800 Steamplant Rd., Off Hwy 72 PO Box 2000 Stevenson AL 35772-2000 Approx. TN River mile marker 407.3 Allen Combustion Turbines 1499 Steam Plant Rd. Gallatin, TN 37066-8714 Located on McKellar Lake, 21.7 miles from lake entrance at lower Mississippi River mile marker 725.6, 2574 Colbert Combustion Turbines 900 Colbert Steam Plant Rd Tuscumbia, AL 35674-6905 Approx. TN River mile marker 245.3 Gallatin Combustion Turbines 1471 Steam Plant Rd. Gallatin, TN 37066-8714 Approx. Cumberland mile marker 240.6 Johnsonville Combustion Turbines 535 Steam Plant Rd. New Johnsonville, TN 37134 Approx. TN River mile marker 99.6 Kemper Combustion Turbines 221 Mark Cobb Rd. De Kalb, MS 39328-9007 Approx. Lagoon Creek Combustion Turbines 615 Elm Tree Rd. Brownsville, TN 38012-6321 Approx. TVA Coal Types Central Appalachian  1.2  1.6  2.5  4.0 Powder River Basin  8,800  8,400 NAPP Pittsburg  2.5  3.0-4.0  6.0 Illinois Basin  2.0  2.5  3.0  4.0  4.5  5.0  6.0  7.0 Colorado Utah TVA Reagents SBS Solution - $/Ton (on a dry NA2SO3 basis - Sodium Bi-sulfite) Urea Solution - $/gal (50% Solution) Hydrated Lime - $/Ton Limestone - $/Ton Propane - $/MBtu (HHV gas - JSF) Anhydrous Ammonia - $/Ton (Ozone Season) Anhydrous Ammonia - $/Ton (Non-Ozone Season) Fuelsolv - ?/MBtu
- Place of Performance
- Address: 1101 Market Street, Chattanooga, TN
- Zip Code: 37402
- Country: USA
- Zip Code: 37402
- Record
- SN00918924-W 20051022/051020212507 (fbodaily.com)
- Source
-
FedBizOpps.gov Link to This Notice
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