SOLICITATION NOTICE
B -- Research on Index Numbers for Variables Calculated as Differences
- Notice Date
- 6/26/2003
- Notice Type
- Solicitation Notice
- Contracting Office
- Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Acquisition and Grants Office, SSMC4 - Room 7601/OFA61 1305 East West Highway, 7th Floor, Silver Spring, MD, 20910
- ZIP Code
- 20910
- Solicitation Number
- BA063250300070
- Response Due
- 7/11/2003
- Archive Date
- 7/30/2004
- Point of Contact
- Alonzo Jacobs, Contract Specialist, Phone 301-713-0839 x127, Fax 301-713-0809, - Alonzo Jacobs, Contract Specialist, Phone 301-713-0839 x127, Fax 301-713-0809,
- E-Mail Address
-
alonzo.jacobs@noaa.gov, alonzo.jacobs@noaa.gov
- Small Business Set-Aside
- Total Small Business
- Description
- STATEMENT OF WORK FOR RESEARCH ON INDEX NUMBERS FOR VARIABLES CALCULATED AS DIFFERENCES OVERVIEW The US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has a requirement for a contractor to investigate the theory and practice of index-number problems involving values calculated as differences. The Contractor shall furnish the findings of this investigation in three Final Reports that review the literature on these problems, identify common practices for handling them, and recommend feasible improvements to the methods now used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). One report shall investigate and develop solutions for measuring real change in inventories, real net fixed investment, and real net exports in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA's). A second report shall investigate and develop solutions for measuring real GDP, command-basis real GNP, terms of trade, and real wealth. A third report shall investigate and develop solutions for measuring real value added by industry and constant-dollar annual input-output tables in the GDP-by-industry and annual input-output accounts. The order in which these reports are completed and provided to BEA shall be at the discretion of the Contractor. BACKGROUND In the NIPA's, three important variables can change sign because they are defined as a difference. The sign of change in inventories depends on the balance between production and sales; the sign of net fixed investment depends on the balance between gross fixed investment and consumption of fixed capital; and the sign of net exports depends on the balance between exports and imports. Negative values may make the Fisher index number formula usually used by BEA impossible to calculate. Moreover, regardless of whether negative values are present, the most meaningful way to calculate index numbers involving these variables is unclear. The subtractions involved in calculating change in inventories, net fixed investment, and net exports can pose problems in the measurement of real GDP and price deflators for real GDP, and in the measurement of command-basis real GNP and terms of trade. (See NIPA table 1.11.) Furthermore, problems in the measurement of real fixed investment have implications for the measurement of real wealth. Real wealth may be measured in terms of real purchasing power, or in terms of the real capital stock that it represents. Finally, negative numbers can potentially occur in the measurement of real value added by industry when real value added is measured as the difference between deflated output and deflated intermediate inputs-that is, the double-deflation procedure. Related problems occur in the calculations of constant-dollar annual input-output tables. However, unlike real change in inventories or real net exports, measures of real value added by industry can be cast in a production-based framework. Therefore, theoretical solutions for measuring real value added may be able to take advantage of this existing framework. WORK REQUIREMENTS/DELIVERABLES The Contractor shall prepare three reports, each of no fewer than 50 pages double-spaced, that meet the following requirements. Report 1: Real investment and real exports. This report shall review the literature, including international guidelines for statistical agencies and including research in progress that is relevant to the problems of measuring real values for changes in inventories, net fixed investment, and net exports. It shall also discuss common or conventional practices at statistical agencies for measuring real values for change in inventories, net fixed investment, and net exports. It shall discuss the insights and solutions to these measurement problems that can be developed from economic theory and from index-number theory. Finally, it shall discuss practical ways to improve the measures of these concepts in the NIPA's. Report 2: Command-basis real GNP, terms of trade and real wealth. This report shall review the literature, including international guidelines and research in progress that is relevant to the problems of measuring command-basis real GNP, terms of trade, and real wealth. In addition, the effects of the negative components of investment and net exports on measures of real GDP and price indexes for GDP should be considered. The report shall discuss common or conventional practices for measuring real GDP, real command-basis GNP, terms of trade, and real wealth. It shall discuss the insights and solutions to these measurement problems that can be developed from economic theory and from index-number theory. Finally, it shall discuss practical ways to improve the measures of these concepts in the NIPA's and associated fixed-assets accounts. Report 3: Real value added by industry and constant-dollar input-output tables. This report shall review the literature, including international guidelines and research in progress that is relevant to the problems of measuring real value added by industry and constant-dollar annual input-output tables. The report shall discuss common or conventional practices for measuring these concepts. It shall discuss the insights and solutions to these measurement problems that can be developed from economic theory and from index- number theory. Finally, it shall discuss practical ways to improve measures of these concepts in the GDP-by-industry and annual input-output accounts. GOVERNMENT-FURNISHED RESOURCES BEA staff shall be available to answer questions about its definitions and methods and about the suitability of possible new methods for its needs. BEA shall provide comments and feedback to the Contractor within four weeks after receipt of each deliverable. Requisitioner's contact person shall be Marshall Reinsdorf. TRAVEL The Contractor shall be required to make three trips to Washington to present seminars on the three reports and to discuss them with BEA managers. This travel shall be conducted on a government travel order with reimbursement to the contractor at government rates for transportation, per diem lodging and meals/incidentals. PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE The period of performance shall be from date of award through September, 2004. STATUS REPORTS The contractor shall keep Marshall Reinsdorf, the BEA contact person apprised of all developments and accomplishments. In addition, the contractor shall present a seminar at BEA on each report prior to submitting a final version of the report to BEA. FINAL REPORT DUE DATES At end of period of performance. PAYMENTS Full payment for each report shall be made upon receipt of a satisfactory final report. EVALUATION CRITERIA Technical Factors Factor A- Technical expertise and relevant experience (60 percent). Evidence of technical expertise and relevant experience shall include publications on index number theory and practice in academic journals, or authorship of chapters on index number practices in manuals for statistical agencies or international organizations. Factor B- Past performance (25 percent). Contractor should have successfully completed contracts for statistical or economic research for government agencies or international organizations. Factor C- Education (15 percent). Contractor should have a Ph.D. in economics or a related discipline. Cost/Price Factor PLEASE NOTE: ALL PROPOSALS ARE DUE NO LATER THAN: 10:00 AM, JULY 11, 2003. PROPOSALS MUST BE SUBMITTED VIA E-MAIL TO: ALONZO.JACOBS@NOAA.GOV ALL PROPOSALS MUST BE SUBMITTED ELECTRONCALLY VIA E-MAIL IN MS WORD FORMAT. COST PROPOSALS SHALL BE SUBMITTED IN MS WORD OR MS Excel FORMAT. COST PROPOSALS SHALL BE A SEPARATE DOCUMENT AND MUST SHOW "TOTAL" COLUMNS FOR ALL PROPOSED COSTS. THE FINAL AWARD SHALL BE MADE ON THE BEST VALUE TO THE GOVERNMENT. THE GOVERNMENT RESERVES THE RIGHT TO MAKE AWARD BASED ON INITIAL OFFERS. GOVERNMENT RIGHTS IN DATA CLAUSES APPLY.
- Web Link
-
Link to FedBizOpps document.
(http://www.eps.gov/spg/DOC/NOAA/AGAMD/BA063250300070/listing.html)
- Place of Performance
- Address: Bureau of Economic Analysis US Department of Commerce 1441 L Street, NW Washington, DC
- Zip Code: 20230
- Country: USA
- Zip Code: 20230
- Record
- SN00358458-F 20030628/030626231408 (fbodaily.com)
- Source
-
FedBizOpps.gov Link to This Notice
(may not be valid after Archive Date)
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